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Thursday, June 28, 2012

NFL Regular Season Win Totals Over/Under NFC South

This is part two of my NFL Over/Under win totals for the 2012 regular season. All totals based off Sportsbook.com's current spread. Each day, I will be doing a different division. Up second is the NFC South Sportsbook's spread in parenthesis.



Atlanta Falcons (9 wins)
The Falcons have made the playoffs the past two seasons. They will be hard pressed to make it a third consecutive year. Matt Ryan, is a quality QB. But he has never won a playoff game, and he has yet to make the leap into the upper echelon of QB's.  The Falcon have a difficult schedule that includes; tough divisional games against New Orleans and Carolina. Plus, road games at; San Diego, Philly, and Detroit. They also host the; Broncos, Giants, and Cowboys. Atlanta feels like a team that has lost it's championship window, and will begin to decline.  Since 1996, at least five teams that made the playoffs, have gone on to miss them the next year. Atlanta is definitely on that list for me. I think they are the third best team in the NFC South. And I do not see the South Division getting both NFC Wildcard spots. THe public money is on them going over 9 wins. As the over, is paying out -130. Take the under.
Prediction: Under 9 wins. I'm thinking 7 wins, and a new coach for 2013.

Carolina Panthers (7.5 wins)
The Panthers won 6 games last season, with a rookie QB, at the helm. That rookie QB was Cam Newton. Who only had the greatest statistical season by a rookie QB of all-time. Newton, smashed the NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a QB and finished with, over 4,000 yards passing the football. There is no reason to expect a sophomore slump from him. The Panthers finished with the fourth most points in the NFC (406). Carolina drew a tough schedule for a 6 win team, as they have to play the NFC East this season. They have tough home games against; New Orleans, Atlanta, NY Giants, and depending on how you feel about them; the Cowboys, and Broncos. They also have to play; Philly, Atlanta, San Diego, and New Orleans on the road. I feel like this is an up and coming team that could make the playoffs this year, if they catch a few breaks. If the Panther's can improve their defense this season, they could be a Wild Card team in the NFC. They will have to go  4-2 against there division opponents to make this happen. Which, I believe they can do.The early public money is on the Panthers to cover this spread, as over 7.5 wins is paying out -145.

Prediction: Over 7.5 wins. I'm thinking 9 wins and a sixth seed in the NFC.

New Orleans Saints (9.5 wins) 
Of Course, the Saints will be without their head coach, Sean Payton, for the season. He is suspended for the year, because of the bounty scandal. (Which, is a joke.) The Saints where one of the best teams in the NFL last season. And I think they will be this year to. They will be playing with a chip on their collective shoulders, because of the bounty scandal. Drew Brees, will eventually sign his Franchise tender. He will not miss anytime this season. He is the field general for this squad, so I do not think they will miss Payton, as much as others do. The Saints tough games include:road games at; Carolina, Green Bay, Denver, and the Giants; and home games against; Carolina, Philly, and San Diego. I think this team wins their division, once again. The public is split on this line so far. Under is paying even money, while the over is paying -120.
Prediction: Over 9.5 wins. I'm thinking 10-11 wins and a division title. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5 wins)
Tampa fired their coach Raheem Morris, and hired Rutgers' head coach Greg Schiano. Whose Rutgers team were terrible the last few years. I do not get it. This team spent money in the off-season. But overpaid for most of their signings. Take Vincent Jackson, for example. He has a lot of talent, but is injury prone, and a head case. This will not work well, with Schiano's, coaching style. This team quit on their easy going coach last season. And they will quit on this hard nosed coach this season. Mark it down. They open the season hosting Carolina. Then they go on the road to play the Giants in week 2, and the Cowboys in week 3. That is an 0-3 start for sure. The only winnable games on the schedule are: Home games against St Louis KC and Washington; and a road game against the Vikings. That's a Thursday Night prime-time game. Get your popcorn ready for that game, as it is sure to be a classic. The public's money is on the Buccaneers to cover the 5 win total. As the over is paying out only -185, while the under is paying out +155.  I do not know why people are putting their hard earned money on Tampa to win more than 5 games. But I do not see more than 3, maybe 4 wins for this team. Take the under and get paid 1.5 times the amount you bet. Please.
Prediction:under 5 wins. I'm thinking 3-4 wins for this squad.



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