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Wednesday, June 27, 2012

NFL Regular Season Win Totals Over/Under NFC EAST

This is part one my NFL Over/Under win totals for the 2012 regular season. All totals based off Sportsbook.com's current spread. Each day, I will be doing a different division. Up first is everyone's favorite division, the NFC East. Sportsbook's spread in parenthesis. 

Dallas Cowboys (8.5 wins) I'll take the under on this one. The Cowboys won eight games against a relatively difficult schedule last season. And I like what this team has done in the off-season. Adding secondary help in the likes of; draft pick Morris Claiborne(despite his 3 on the wonderlic IQ test, he should be an upgrade over Mike Jenkins) and free agent cornerback, Brandon Carr. The Cowboys should have an improved secondary, which was this team's biggest weakness last year. But, this team plays in what could be the toughest division in football, and has an even harder schedule on paper this year. Of course, they have to play all the teams in there division twice. Which is no easy task. Plus they have road games at Cincy, Carolina, and Baltimore. If that wasn't difficult enough, there last two home games are against Pittsburgh, and New Orleans. The Cowboys are always a team, that teases you into thinking that they are going to be good. Don't fall for it this year. So far, the public's early money is on them going over, as under 8.5 is paying out +130. Take the Under.
Prediction-under 8.5 wins. Let's say 7 wins on the year.

New York Giants (8.5) I don't know how the Giants are continuing to get disrespected. Vegas, is giving them the same win total as the Cowboys. How? Yes, the Giants won just 9 games last year. But they won the Superbowl. And got better as the season went along. This is a young team, that should be better this season. They have a solid defense. And there offense is led by a two-time Superbowl MVP, in Eli Manning. They do have a difficult schedule; tough road games at Philly, Dallas, Cincy, Baltimore, and San Fran, and difficult home games against; Philly, Dallas, New Orleans, and Green Bay. But, I do not see a way that this team doesn't win at least 9 games. Take the over. Public money is on the over as well. As the over is paying out -145. I think it is a pretty safe bet though. Trust Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. You will not be disappointed.
Prediction:over 8.5 wins Let's say 11 wins on the year.

Philadelphia Eagles (10.5) This is a tough one. I think the Eagles have a great chance to win there first Superbowl this season. But, if you take the over on this one they have to win at least 11 games. Which, I think they can, but I am not confident enough to bet on. IF you take the over, your betting on Mike Vick to stay healthy for the whole season. Which is doubtful. If he can, this team will win at least 11 games. If he gets hurt, your bet is screwed. The Eagles have a manageable schedule. With the only difficult road games being; Dallas, Giants, Steelers and Saints. Home games against; Baltimore, Cincy, Philly, and Dallas could be dicey, especially if Vick is out. I'm taking the under on this one. Although I wouldn't bet it, because it's too close to call in my opinion. Stay away from this one. The Public is split so far, with the under bet paying even money. While the over bet is paying out, -120.
Prediction:under 10.5 wins. Let's go with 10 wins on the year. *If Vick can stay healthy, this squad could win 12-13 games easily. 

Washington Redskins (6) The Skins have to play in a difficult division, and will be starting a rookie QB, in Robert Griffin III. This bet depends on if you buy into the Griffin hype. I do not. In my opinion, he is just a by product of the ESPN hype-machine. He is not Cam Newton. Repeat, he is not Cam Newton. Newton, had one of the best rookie QB seasons of all-time. Cam Newton, is a beast. Robert Griffin is skinny, and let's not forget he is injury prone. I do not think he will hold up over the course of a 16 game NFL schedule. Every game on the schedule should be difficult for the Redskins, because they are not any good. The only winnable games for them are; at St. Louis, at Cleveland, and home to Minnesota. They will probably win one or two games against there division rivals. Which leaves them with 4-5 wins. This iteration of the Washington Redskins has 4-12, or 3-13 written all over them. Take the under. You will be laughing and counting your money by week 11. I envision the following scenario playing out next season in Washington:  Pierre Garcon, drops another poorly thrown Rex Grossman pass. The camera then pans to a zoned out Mike Shannahan, who clearly, has given up. Behind him, Robert Griffin watches in street clothes, only able to stand with the help of crutches. Somewhere, Redskins Owner, Dan Synder thinks to himself,"Well, I'll just have to overpay another undersized receiver, that has had one good season. Hire a washed up coach, who was last good in the 1990's. And I'll get my Superbowl. I've been doing this exact same thing for 15 years. With no results. But, odds are, it has to work sometime.  Right???"
Prediction:under 6 wins. Let's say 4 wins on the year.

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